ABSTRACT
Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) has been described as a common cardiovascular manifestation in patients suffering from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and has been suggested to be a potential risk factor for a poor clinical outcome. Methods: In this observational study, all patients hospitalized due to COVID-19 in 2020 in the Cantonal Hospital of Baden were included. We assessed clinical characteristics, in-hospital outcomes as well as long-term outcomes with a mean follow-up time of 278 (±90) days. Results: Amongst 646 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 (59% male, median age: 70 (IQR: 59-80)) in 2020, a total of 177 (27.4%) patients were transferred to the intermediate/intensive care unit (IMC/ICU), and 76 (11.8%) were invasively ventilated during their hospitalization. Ninety patients (13.9%) died. A total of 116 patients (18%) showed AF on admission of which 34 (29%) had new-onset AF. Patients with COVID-19 and newly diagnosed AF were more likely to require invasive ventilation (OR: 3.5; p = 0.01) but did not encounter an increased in-hospital mortality. Moreover, AF neither increased long-term mortality nor the number of rehospitalizations during follow-up after adjusting for confounders. Conclusions: In patients suffering from COVID-19, the new-onset of AF on admission was associated with an increased risk of invasive ventilation and transfer to the IMC/ICU but did not affect in-hospital or long-term mortality.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic demands reliable prognostic models for estimating the risk of long COVID. We developed and validated a prediction model to estimate the probability of known common long COVID symptoms at least 60 days after acute COVID-19. METHODS: The prognostic model was built based on data from a multicentre prospective Swiss cohort study. Included were adult patients diagnosed with COVID-19 between February and December 2020 and treated as outpatients, at ward or intensive/intermediate care unit. Perceived long-term health impairments, including reduced exercise tolerance/reduced resilience, shortness of breath and/or tiredness (REST), were assessed after a follow-up time between 60 and 425 days. The data set was split into a derivation and a geographical validation cohort. Predictors were selected out of twelve candidate predictors based on three methods, namely the augmented backward elimination (ABE) method, the adaptive best-subset selection (ABESS) method and model-based recursive partitioning (MBRP) approach. Model performance was assessed with the scaled Brier score, concordance c statistic and calibration plot. The final prognostic model was determined based on best model performance. RESULTS: In total, 2799 patients were included in the analysis, of which 1588 patients were in the derivation cohort and 1211 patients in the validation cohort. The REST prevalence was similar between the cohorts with 21.6% (n = 343) in the derivation cohort and 22.1% (n = 268) in the validation cohort. The same predictors were selected with the ABE and ABESS approach. The final prognostic model was based on the ABE and ABESS selected predictors. The corresponding scaled Brier score in the validation cohort was 18.74%, model discrimination was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.75 to 0.81), calibration slope was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.78 to 1.06) and calibration intercept was -0.06 (95% CI: -0.22 to 0.09). CONCLUSION: The proposed model was validated to identify COVID-19-infected patients at high risk for REST symptoms. Before implementing the prognostic model in daily clinical practice, the conduct of an impact study is recommended.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Since the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there has been increasing urgency to identify pathophysiological characteristics leading to severe clinical course in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Human leukocyte antigen alleles (HLA) have been suggested as potential genetic host factors that affect individual immune response to SARS-CoV-2. We sought to evaluate this hypothesis by conducting a multicenter study using HLA sequencing. METHODS: We analyzed the association between COVID-19 severity and HLAs in 435 individuals from Germany (n = 135), Spain (n = 133), Switzerland (n = 20) and the United States (n = 147), who had been enrolled from March 2020 to August 2020. This study included patients older than 18 years, diagnosed with COVID-19 and representing the full spectrum of the disease. Finally, we tested our results by meta-analysing data from prior genome-wide association studies (GWAS). FINDINGS: We describe a potential association of HLA-C*04:01 with severe clinical course of COVID-19. Carriers of HLA-C*04:01 had twice the risk of intubation when infected with SARS-CoV-2 (risk ratio 1.5 [95% CI 1.1-2.1], odds ratio 3.5 [95% CI 1.9-6.6], adjusted p-value = 0.0074). These findings are based on data from four countries and corroborated by independent results from GWAS. Our findings are biologically plausible, as HLA-C*04:01 has fewer predicted bindings sites for relevant SARS-CoV-2 peptides compared to other HLA alleles. INTERPRETATION: HLA-C*04:01 carrier state is associated with severe clinical course in SARS-CoV-2. Our findings suggest that HLA class I alleles have a relevant role in immune defense against SARS-CoV-2. FUNDING: Funded by Roche Sequencing Solutions, Inc.
ABSTRACT
Myocarditis is an inflammatory disease of the heart muscle with a wide range of potential etiological factors and consequently varying clinical patterns across the world. In this review, we address the epidemiology of myocarditis. Myocarditis was considered a rare disease until intensified research efforts in recent decades revealed its true epidemiological importance. While it remains a challenge to determine the true prevalence of myocarditis, studies are underway to obtain better approximations of the proportions of this disease. Nowadays, the prevalence of myocarditis has been reported from 10.2 to 105.6 per 100,000 worldwide, and its annual occurrence is estimated at about 1.8 million cases. This wide range of reported cases reflects the uncertainty surrounding the true prevalence and a potential underdiagnosis of this disease. Since myocarditis continues to be a significant public health issue, particularly in young adults in whom myocarditis is among the most common causes of sudden cardiac death, improved diagnostic and therapeutic procedures are necessary. This manuscript aims to summarize the current knowledge on the epidemiology of myocarditis, new diagnostic approaches and the current epidemiological impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.